Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf2b…fb88 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-9%) realized −$92 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%33W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$33
other 16% −$53
sports 9% −$53
weather 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -22.1% -29.5% 42% 36% -21.3%
≤30d 78 -22.1% -29.5% 42% 36% -21.3%
≤90d 78 -22.1% -29.5% 42% 36% -21.3%
all 78 -22.1% -29.5% 42% 36% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 36% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 32% -28.8%
15% -42.4% 26% -35.7%
20% -48.1% 21% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 47¢ 5¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$19 +135%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$21 +63%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +140%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$8 +89%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$4 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$7 -84%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +89%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$6 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -42%
Varbergs BoIS vs. Norrby IF: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $22 −$17 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $16 0m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $39 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $37 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $54 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $39 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $8 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $16 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 10h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.54 · official $12.54 (match) · 169 history records