Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf2b…d39b
politics · 77 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$13 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$94
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)55 / 77
History coverage130d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 22 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 88¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference? No 69¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 57¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 45¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 79¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 31¢ 51¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+65%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 52¢ 44¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-70%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 21¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 73¢ 2¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$6 +144%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 30 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 29 $1 +$5 +322%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $6 +$4 +75%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $5 +$2 +52%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $12 +$2 +19%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 13? May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 Week of May 11 May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2 +$6 +341%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $112 Week of May 11 2026? May 11 $6 +$5 +82%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 11 $6 +$3 +56%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 02 $6 +$3 +59%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on April 20? Apr 23 $6 +$3 +54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 20 $2 +$6 +257%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? Apr 20 $3 +$6 +203%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $6 +$3 +56%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 07 $4 +$6 +138%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 05 $12 −$4 -36%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Mar 05 $21 +$7 +31%
Will Leavitt say "Historic" during the next White House Press Briefing Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $12 −$4 -33%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in February? Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $6 +$2 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 03 $6 +$10 +170%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $30 +$2 +5%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 28 $2 +$2 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 31% −$16
other 23% −$7
world 17% −$7
tech 16% −$1
sports 9% $0
finance 3% +$12
culture 1% +$2
economics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere BUY No 69¢ $6 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 22h
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 43h
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $4 13d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY Yes 80¢ $6 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $5 15d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 16d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 31¢ $3 16d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? BUY No 42¢ $4 16d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 17d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 18d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? BUY No 66¢ $5 23d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 28¢ $2 23d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? BUY No 67¢ $5 24d
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $6 28d
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $6 28d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 30d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Up 52¢ $6 31d
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 31d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 Week of May 11 BUY Yes 21¢ $2 31d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $6 32d
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 32d
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $112 Week of May 11 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 32d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 33d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 49d
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 50d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY No 57¢ $6 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.0% +12.2% 100% 100% +12.2%
≤30d 18 +22.5% +10.9% 61% 61% -2.8%
≤90d 37 +12.5% +1.8% 57% 57% -2.6%
all 55 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 51% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 51% -10.2%
10% -14.9% 45% -18.8%
15% -23.1% 33% -26.7%
20% -30.6% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.52 · official $93.67 (match) · 200 history records