Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf2b…a7f0 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+3%) realized +$27 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$124
14 days+$124
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$81
crypto 11% +$143
other 9% +$32
politics 9% +$87
weather 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +145.7% +122.3% 71% 71% +103.2%
≤30d 8 +115.0% +94.5% 62% 62% +76.6%
≤90d 46 -1.0% -10.4% 43% 43% -5.0%
all 56 +8.9% -1.5% 46% 46% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 46% +5.0%
10% -10.9% 43% -5.0%
15% -19.5% 43% -14.2%
20% -27.4% 43% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$16 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)56 / 64
History coverage305d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $21 $28 +$6 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $8 $16 +$9 (+112%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-29%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $29 −$1 -4%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both Jun 26 $7 +$6 +88%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ Jun 25 $15 +$81 +525%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U Jun 25 $12 +$21 +170%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland Jun 25 $15 +$22 +144%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$10 +197%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $15 −$15 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $43 −$42 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $55 +$39 +71%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - T May 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Team Top Batte May 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $15 +$10 +67%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $20 +$19 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 1 May 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 11 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals - Toss Match Dou May 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $12 +$8 +67%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $40 +$25 +62%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $35 −$9 -27%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $26 −$26 -98%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $56 +$83 +149%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Team To Apr 30 $6 +$5 +79%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $35 −$35 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Who win Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - Apr 29 $15 +$14 +93%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 29 $15 +$11 +73%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $25 +$28 +114%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $50 −$32 -64%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $58 −$28 -48%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $36 +$24 +67%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 14 $17 +$4 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on September 1? Apr 12 $20 +$33 +163%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 29? Aug 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 2PM ET Aug 28 $4 +$5 +132%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112.5K on August 28 at 4PM ET? Aug 28 $4 +$4 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $111.5K on August 28 at 4PM ET? Aug 28 $15 +$19 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $28 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $29 1h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both BUY 53¢ $7 41h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U BUY 44¢ $15 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 47h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U BUY 36¢ $12 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland BUY 40¢ $15 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total BUY 22¢ $8 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ BUY 16¢ $15 3d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $15 29d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 23¢ $6 36d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 53¢ $37 36d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 23¢ $7 38d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 40d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 40d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 45¢ $17 40d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 46¢ $12 40d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Delhi Capitals 85¢ $28 41d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Delhi Capitals 54¢ $18 41d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Delhi Capitals 55¢ $36 41d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - T BUY Yes 40¢ $13 42d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 56¢ $13 42d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Lucknow Super Giants 51¢ $25 43d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Team Top Batte BUY Yes 50¢ $3 44d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians BUY Punjab Kings 49¢ $25 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.23 · official $93.24 (match) · 163 history records