Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf27…01b0 weather 506 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$176 (+1%) realized +$165 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%474W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days−$74
14 days+$114
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$149
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -9.4% -18.0% 89% 3% -9.8%
≤30d 423 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 504 +0.4% -9.1% 94% 4% -9.2%
all 504 +0.4% -9.1% 94% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 4% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses474 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)504 / 506
History coverage44d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $287 $298 +$11 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $296 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $293 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $212 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $296 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $294 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $294 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $296 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $285 +$14 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $294 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $278 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $287 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $291 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $295 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $291 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $289 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $256 +$44 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $296 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $264 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $288 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $244 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.06 · official $299.96 (match) · 1744 history records