Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbf26…6fe2 sports 1073 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,538 (-2%) realized −$8,535 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%610W / 461L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1,263est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,394
7 days−$1,780
14 days−$1,780
30 days−$3,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$10,686
other 6% +$229
crypto 0% +$72
world 0% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 58% -34.2%
≤30d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 58% -41.1%
≤90d 353 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 54% -17.0%
all 1071 -3.3% -12.5% 57% 55% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 55% -11.7%
10% -20.9% 42% -20.2%
15% -28.5% 35% -27.9%
20% -35.6% 32% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$532) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$332 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized−$8,535
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses610 / 461
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,263
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1071 / 1073
History coverage244d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1071 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $385 $383 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 422 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $206 +$50 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $683 +$82 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $138 +$210 +152%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $874 −$867 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $559 −$555 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $183 −$182 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $267 +$101 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $541 +$310 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $426 −$5 -1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $543 −$538 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $353 +$114 +32%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $259 +$71 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $27 +$5 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $251 −$247 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $377 +$404 +107%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $392 +$95 +24%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 +$34 +158%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 11 $497 −$492 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $374 −$370 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $1,368 −$1,350 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 01 $151 −$149 -99%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 01 $255 +$357 +140%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 29 $278 −$274 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 21 $14 +$5 +36%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 21 $57 +$53 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 21 $211 +$56 +27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 14 $71 +$52 +73%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 13 $69 −$68 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 13 $32 +$37 +116%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $195 +$251 +129%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) May 12 $161 +$215 +134%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 12 $57 −$56 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 11 $123 +$179 +146%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) May 10 $463 −$455 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 May 10 $148 +$144 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 May 10 $448 +$356 +79%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 10 $702 +$508 +72%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals May 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 09 $44 −$43 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 09 $44 −$43 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 09 $148 +$144 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 08 $145 +$73 +50%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $1,241 +$1,063 +86%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 29 $1,098 −$1,085 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $506 +$355 +70%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $861 −$847 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 29 $1,183 +$852 +72%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Apr 29 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $2,853 −$2,800 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $190 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $197 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $736 15h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $137 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $72 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $144 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $175 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $287 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $167 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $396 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $183 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $206 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $138 28h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $135 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $89 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $83 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $768 41h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $132 41h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $2 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $541 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $421 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $369 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $353 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $257 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $53 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.34 · official $397.34 (match) · 2079 history records