Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbf23…0fc1 sports 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$428 (+4%) realized +$428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate80%90W / 22L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$379
14 days+$379
30 days+$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$314
other 30% +$102
tech 4% +$2
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -15.0% -23.1% 79% 19% -5.8%
≤30d 97 -15.0% -23.1% 79% 19% -5.8%
≤90d 100 -15.3% -23.4% 78% 18% -6.0%
all 112 -7.4% -16.2% 80% 25% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 25% -5.7%
10% -24.2% 11% -14.7%
15% -31.5% 8% -23.0%
20% -38.2% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses90 / 22
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage718d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $52 +$3 +5%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 23 $625 +$35 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $260 +$15 +6%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $54 +$1 +1%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 23 $54 +$1 +1%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 23 $54 +$1 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 23 $53 +$2 +4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 23 $215 +$5 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $54 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $54 +$2 +3%
Draxl vs. Bertola: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $490 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Hsu vs Sakellaridis Jun 22 $48 +$2 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs Galarneau Jun 22 $72 +$3 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena Jun 22 $71 +$3 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Wong vs Gojo Jun 22 $147 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $161 +$1 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Cadenasso vs Cina Jun 22 $336 +$28 +8%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 22 $74 +$1 +1%
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals Jun 22 $97 +$3 +3%
Ibrahim Adel: 5+ shots Jun 22 $1,052 +$30 +3%
Shahriyar Moghanloo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals Jun 21 $74 +$1 +2%
Mehdi Taremi: 2+ goals Jun 21 $73 +$2 +3%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals Jun 21 $165 +$10 +6%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ assists Jun 21 $190 +$10 +5%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 3+ goals Jun 21 $334 +$16 +5%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 21 $377 +$23 +6%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals Jun 21 $143 +$7 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $53 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Walton vs. Ghibaudo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $124 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Tomljanovic vs Erjavec Jun 21 $73 +$2 +3%
Nilsson vs. Sieg: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs. Keshav Chopra: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Matthew Dellavedova vs. Hoyoung Roh: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 95¢ $52 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 100¢ $54 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $54 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $44 7h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $54 8h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $54 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 99¢ $54 8h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 98¢ $30 8h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $15 8h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $10 9h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 96¢ $53 10h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 98¢ $54 11h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 98¢ $54 11h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 97¢ $53 11h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 97¢ $53 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $54 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $52 11h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $52 11h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $52 11h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $52 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 428 history records