Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbf21…e0c1 weather 520 markets active 12h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$285 (+0%) realized +$283 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%488W / 19L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day65.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$171
14 days+$252
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$247
crypto 4% +$1
other 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 -3.1% -12.3% 94% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 507 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 507 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 2% -9.4%
all 507 -1.7% -11.1% 96% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 2% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×11.84 per $1 lost it wins $11.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1,744
Realized+$283
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses488 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)507 / 520
History coverage12d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day65.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 82°F or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $230 $230 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 16? Jun 16 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 16? Jun 16 $190 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3,200 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1,741 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2,257 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $660 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 15? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 15? Jun 15 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $60 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $140 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $500 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,744.50 · official $1,744.07 (match) · 1296 history records