Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf20…4f40 other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,575 (+5%) realized +$650 · open +$925
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 41L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,738
7 days+$382
14 days+$660
30 days+$660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$2,518
sports 40% +$5,074
crypto 1% −$249
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +2.9% -6.9% 33% 25% -8.2%
≤30d 62 +3.0% -6.8% 34% 26% -7.4%
≤90d 62 +3.0% -6.8% 34% 26% -7.4%
all 66 +8.9% -1.5% 38% 30% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 30% -5.3%
10% -10.9% 21% -14.4%
15% -19.5% 18% -22.6%
20% -27.4% 14% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -48% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$138 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$2,416
Realized+$650
Unrealized+$925
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 71
History coverage284d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 100¢ $946 $1,899 +$953 (+101%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $515 $512 −$3 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,857 +$109 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $71 +$29 +41%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,996 +$3,494 +117%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $102 +$116 +114%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 +$22 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,129 −$3,100 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $90 +$17 +18%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $304 −$304 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $109 −$76 -70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$126 +2458%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$66 +1290%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$47 +93%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,383 +$92 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $3,452 +$176 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $200 +$301 +150%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2,185 +$636 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $51 −$16 -30%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$84 -81%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $298 −$110 -37%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,163 +$529 +24%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $245 −$245 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 28-November 3? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $220 −$78 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 26? Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 0¢ $10 13m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 27m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $75 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $152 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $406 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $20 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $22 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $22 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $24 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,705 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 7¢ $18 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 19h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $517 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $102 30h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 44h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $20 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $3,141 46h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2,996 46h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 42¢ $73 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $3,129 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 3¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $102 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,416.21 · official $2,416.21 (match) · 182 history records