Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf1d…7871 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$31 (+6%) realized +$49 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$48
politics 30% −$1
world 27% −$18
sports 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 7 +4.6% -5.4% 57% 14% +10.3%
≤90d 13 -23.4% -30.7% 46% 8% +7.6%
all 16 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 19% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 19% +7.7%
10% -29.4% 12% -2.6%
15% -36.2% 12% -12.0%
20% -42.4% 6% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.69 per $1 lost it wins $5.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage143d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $78 $77 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 82¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 96¢ 96¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 51¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $131 +$52 +40%
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 24 $1 $0 -44%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? May 06 $1 $0 +3%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 06 $1 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I Feb 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 27 $1 +$1 +64%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 1h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 96¢ $53 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $78 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $62 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $57 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $183 12d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $12 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $61 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $95 12d
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $2 12d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $1 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 81¢ $12 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 84¢ $13 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 42¢ $1 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 72¢ $1 48d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $1 48d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 48d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $1 48d
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 70¢ $2 48d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 48d
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $1 117d
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $1 117d
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $1 117d
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $1 117d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I SELL No 90¢ $1 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? SELL No 99¢ $2 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.73 · official $253.73 (match) · 51 history records