Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf1b…4340 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,161 (-22%) realized −$1,145 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%101W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1,022
politics 17% −$287
other 17% +$97
world 14% +$56
crypto 1% −$7
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +48.0% +33.9% 100% 100% +25.4%
≤90d 41 -58.1% -62.1% 27% 27% -69.7%
all 160 +0.6% -9.0% 63% 49% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 49% -29.3%
10% -17.7% 36% -36.0%
15% -25.6% 29% -42.2%
20% -32.9% 21% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$34 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$1,145
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses101 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)160 / 163
History coverage595d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $83 $68 −$15 (-18%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 68¢ 57¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? No 33¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? No 64¢ 0¢ $1,076 $0 −$1,076 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? No 39¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $218 +$80 +37%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $52 +$27 +51%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $26 +$4 +18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $1,076 −$1,076 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 28 $10 −$7 -69%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 14? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 28 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Jets vs. Bengals Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $8 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Apr 12 $10 +$11 +113%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 12 $28 +$11 +39%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Apr 12 $31 +$18 +59%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 02 $3 +$2 +92%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 27 $1 $0 +49%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $4 +$14 +360%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $4 +$5 +132%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? Feb 10 $18 +$4 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 10 $21 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 62¢ $10 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 57¢ $66 16d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY Yes 53¢ $1 42d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY Yes 53¢ $4 42d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY No 22¢ $1 46d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 46d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 47d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 47d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 47d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 63¢ $2 47d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 47d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 51¢ $3 47d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 46¢ $2 47d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? BUY No 48¢ $3 53d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? BUY No 48¢ $15 53d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 53d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 68¢ $5 57d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY No 36¢ $5 57d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 78¢ $12 57d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 57¢ $3 57d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? BUY No 40¢ $5 60d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 61d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 77¢ $5 61d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 77¢ $20 61d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 63d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 63d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 57¢ $2 63d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 57¢ $10 63d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 57¢ $10 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.97 · official $88.97 (match) · 764 history records