Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

BF 0xbf1a…d74e sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$910 (+10%) realized +$938 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate89%33W / 4L

Drawdown68%max

Avg bet$232per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$72est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$620

7 days+$804

14 days+$881

30 days+$881

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)+0.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+31.9%	+19.3%	100%	90%	+19.3%
≤30d	37	+11.2%	+0.7%	89%	73%	-0.3%
≤90d	37	+11.2%	+0.7%	89%	73%	-0.3%
all	37	+11.2%	+0.7%	89%	73%	-0.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.7%	73%	-0.3%
10%	-9.0%	43%	-9.8%
15%	-17.8%	22%	-18.5%
20%	-25.8%	8%	-26.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late +15% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs −$251 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$872

Realized+$938

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)89%

Wins / losses33 / 4

Est. fees paid−$72

Open positions4

Markets (closed)37 / 41

History coverage12d

Avg bet$232

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown68%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 37 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces	Las Vegas Aces	63¢	62¢	$300	$298	−$2 (-1%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks	New York Liberty	66¢	65¢	$300	$297	−$3 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	70¢	62¢	$200	$175	−$25 (-12%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	93¢	95¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa	Jun 21	$303	+$170	+56%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings	Jun 21	$302	+$93	+31%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	Jun 20	$303	+$48	+16%
Valencia vs. Barcelona	Jun 20	$303	+$124	+41%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream	Jun 20	$303	+$172	+57%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$100	+$13	+13%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries	Jun 16	$101	+$50	+50%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas	Jun 15	$202	+$68	+34%
Joventut vs. Valencia	Jun 14	$302	+$38	+13%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo	Jun 14	$303	+$28	+9%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos	Jun 13	$303	+$114	+38%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm	Jun 13	$201	+$52	+26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 12	$300	+$12	+4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings	Jun 12	$303	+$120	+40%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever	Jun 12	$302	+$73	+24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 11	$301	+$29	+10%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A	Jun 11	$302	−$300	-99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G	Jun 11	$303	−$303	-100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia	Jun 11	$302	+$78	+26%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm	Jun 11	$302	+$26	+9%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Mets de Guaynabo	Jun 11	$302	+$82	+27%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo	Jun 11	$201	+$65	+32%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA	Jun 10	$101	+$13	+13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 10	$201	+$22	+11%
Valencia vs. Joventut	Jun 10	$190	+$41	+22%
Hapoel Holon BC vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv	Jun 10	$302	+$53	+18%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries	Jun 10	$302	+$48	+16%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 10	$302	−$300	-99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx	Jun 10	$101	+$55	+55%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky	Jun 10	$302	+$83	+27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$101	−$100	-99%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg	Jun 09	$101	+$42	+41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 09	$100	+$19	+18%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun	Jun 09	$100	+$12	+12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 08	$200	+$12	+6%
Will France win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 08	$160	+$12	+7%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos	Jun 08	$100	+$16	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa	SELL Gimnasia	99¢	$473	2h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks	BUY New York Liberty	66¢	$303	2h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces	BUY Las Vegas Aces	63¢	$303	2h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$19	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$35	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$5	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$30	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$30	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$35	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$42	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$30	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$8	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$18	13h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	SELL Phoenix Mercury	83¢	$100	13h
Valencia vs. Barcelona	SELL Valencia	100¢	$426	13h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream	SELL Atlanta Dream	100¢	$476	13h
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa	BUY Gimnasia	63¢	$303	24h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings	BUY Dallas Wings	76¢	$302	24h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream	BUY Atlanta Dream	63¢	$303	24h
Valencia vs. Barcelona	BUY Valencia	70¢	$303	24h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury	BUY Phoenix Mercury	71¢	$303	24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries	BUY Golden State Valkyries	66¢	$101	6d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas	BUY Fenerbahce	74¢	$202	6d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo	SELL Atlanta Dream	73¢	$331	6d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo	BUY Atlanta Dream	66¢	$303	6d
Joventut vs. Valencia	SELL Valencia	89¢	$318	6d
Joventut vs. Valencia	SELL Valencia	89¢	$7	6d
Joventut vs. Valencia	BUY Valencia	79¢	$302	6d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos	BUY Olympiacos B.C.	72¢	$303	8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm	SELL Golden State Valkyries	100¢	$253	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.13 · official $872.13 (match) · 91 history records