Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BF 0xbf19…8480 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (219 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$56 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%15W / 5L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$197per market

Trades / day219.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (219 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+8.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+19.7%	+8.3%	75%	50%	+24.4%
≤30d	20	+19.7%	+8.3%	75%	50%	+24.4%
≤90d	20	+19.7%	+8.3%	75%	50%	+24.4%
all	20	+19.7%	+8.3%	75%	50%	+24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover219.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+8.3%	50%	+24.4%
10% ← realistic here	-2.1%	40%	+12.5%
15%	-11.5%	20%	+1.6%
20%	-20.2%	20%	-8.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late +22% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$115 vs −$49 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.99 per $1 lost it wins $6.99

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$56

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses15 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$197

Trades / day219.0

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$6	-54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 16	$42	−$2	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 16	$16	+$4	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 16	$117	+$3	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 16	$124	+$6	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 16	$76	−$26	-34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 16	$66	+$4	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 16	$1,715	+$1,085	+63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$7	+252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 16	$409	+$241	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 16	$233	+$167	+72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 16	$344	+$106	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 16	$290	−$210	-72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 16	$316	+$84	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 16	$82	−$2	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 16	$43	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 16	$8	+$2	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 16	$17	+$3	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 16	$34	+$6	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$1	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$1	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	SELL Up	23¢	$4	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$10	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$39	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$3	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$8	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$8	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$108	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$9	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$46	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$11	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$16	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$4	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$37	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$38	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$39	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$10	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$6	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records