Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf18…17b5 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$231 · open +$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-76.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.5% -68.8% 0% 0% -81.5%
≤30d 4 -74.1% -76.6% 0% 0% -84.5%
≤90d 4 -74.1% -76.6% 0% 0% -84.5%
all 4 -74.1% -76.6% 0% 0% -84.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.6% 0% -84.5%
10% -78.8% 0% -86.0%
15% -80.9% 0% -87.3%
20% -82.8% 0% -88.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$58 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,659
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$221
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)4 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $517 $824 +$307 (+59%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $367 $364 −$3 (-1%)
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $150 $171 +$21 (+14%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $76 $72 −$4 (-6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $38 $26 −$12 (-31%)
Will Ecuador record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $80 $14 −$66 (-82%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Sergio Rochet record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $40 $2 −$38 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $203 −$164 -81%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $172 1h
Will Uruguay record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 12h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 12h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 12h
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $204 12h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $78 12h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $38 5d
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $39 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 8d
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $120 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $410 8d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 8d
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 8d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 8d
Will Sergio Rochet record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 13¢ $41 8d
Will Uruguay record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 8d
Will Ecuador record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,658.59 · official $1,658.59 (match) · 20 history records