Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf13…7c9a sports 638 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$429 (+3%) realized +$365 · open +$64
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%344W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$72
14 days+$142
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$689
other 27% −$65
world 7% −$260
politics 5% +$19
finance 1% −$24
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% −$6
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +4.2% -5.7% 63% 53% -2.0%
≤30d 120 +7.7% -2.6% 66% 45% +2.3%
≤90d 344 +8.7% -1.7% 65% 49% -1.9%
all 549 +2.9% -6.9% 63% 48% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 48% -7.0%
10% -15.8% 42% -15.9%
15% -23.9% 31% -24.0%
20% -31.4% 21% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,962
Realized+$365
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses344 / 205
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions89
Markets (closed)549 / 638
History coverage159d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 89 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $176 $193 +$17 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 89¢ $186 $178 −$7 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $120 $127 +$7 (+6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $76 $86 +$10 (+13%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 87¢ 77¢ $87 $77 −$10 (-11%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 69¢ 75¢ $68 $74 +$6 (+9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 76¢ 75¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 99¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+73%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $41 $50 +$9 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $48 $33 −$15 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $31 +$4 (+16%)
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 99¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+148%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 84¢ 98¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 76¢ 87¢ $20 $22 +$3 (+15%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 83¢ 87¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ 16¢ $13 $20 +$8 (+62%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +262%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $32 +$67 +208%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $17 +$13 +74%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$31 +158%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $91 +$25 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$11 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 13 $20 −$18 -90%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 13 $60 −$39 -64%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $53 −$47 -89%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +250%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$6 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
César Huerta: 1+ goals Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Armando González: 1+ goals Jun 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Alexis Vega: 1+ goals Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals Jun 11 $18 +$2 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $65 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -91%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 07 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $32 −$21 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $7 +$13 +178%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $41 +$5 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $37 +$63 +172%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $19 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 65¢ $5 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 17h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 20h
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $10 41h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $10 41h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 22¢ $10 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 75¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $15 2d
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $16 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,961.78 · official $1,961.80 (match) · 1996 history records