Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf13…3366
sports · 135 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$179 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$98 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$223
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses55 / 78
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage99d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 2 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$821
7 days−$342
14 days−$111
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 19¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Team Falcons 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 26¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Spirit 59¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Over 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Spirit 67¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Natus Vincere 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 19¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $35 +$42 +122%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $61 +$87 +142%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $120 −$117 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $9 +$7 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$18 +84%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $22 +$19 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 +$42 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$24 +78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $60 +$36 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $17 +$18 +103%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$26 +149%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$14 +68%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$24 +116%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $20 +$20 +99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $20 +$21 +103%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$111
other 27% +$63
crypto 3% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $77 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $149 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $35 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $61 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 8¢ $10 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) SELL Vitality 99¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $39 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $10 4h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $19 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $39 6h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $21 7h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $10 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $41 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $29 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $22 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $82 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $96 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $60 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $41 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $9 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 30¢ $10 23h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 67¢ $29 24h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $20 24h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY Spirit 59¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 13¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -22.7% -30.0% 33% 33% -21.5%
≤30d 129 -6.3% -15.3% 41% 41% -12.9%
≤90d 130 -6.2% -15.1% 42% 42% -12.9%
all 133 -5.8% -14.8% 41% 41% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 41% -12.5%
10% -23.0% 41% -20.9%
15% -30.4% 40% -28.5%
20% -37.2% 36% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.73 · official $222.73 (match) · 300 history records