Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf0f…d03f
other · 73 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$48 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$48 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage162d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%
Chart Positions 0 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will XRP reach $2.00 December 29-January 4? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address? Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Feb 13 $2 $0 +23%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Feb 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 25 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 25 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $1 $0 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 18 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 18 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $1 $0 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $1 $0 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $4 +$2 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $2 +$6 +286%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $18 −$6 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $1 +$3 +305%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 07 $1 $0 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% −$51
crypto 9% +$8
world 6% −$2
sports 3% −$2
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 96d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 117d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi SELL Yes 15¢ $0 118d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi BUY Yes 49¢ $1 118d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY Yes 33¢ $1 118d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil BUY No 1¢ $1 118d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil SELL Yes 73¢ $2 120d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 126d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 139d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL Yes 3¢ $0 139d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 142d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 142d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 142d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 144d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $1 144d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $1 144d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 144d
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $1 146d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $2 147d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $1 147d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 9¢ $1 147d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +34.3% +21.5% 75% 50% +21.6%
≤30d 4 +34.3% +21.5% 75% 50% +21.6%
≤90d 4 +34.3% +21.5% 75% 50% +21.6%
all 73 -20.7% -28.2% 30% 21% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 21% -36.4%
10% -35.1% 18% -42.5%
15% -41.4% 14% -48.0%
20% -47.1% 12% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records