Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf0c…4d73 other 120 markets active 7d ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$128 (-2%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%114W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 101 -0.7% -10.1% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 120 -2.7% -12.0% 95% 1% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -11.1%
10% -20.4% 0% -19.6%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$32 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses114 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage749d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $90 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 6d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 24d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 31d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records