Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf0b…7ccc sports 702 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,530 (-10%) realized −$4,472 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%339W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$249est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$391
14 days−$455
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$4,158
other 4% −$440
crypto 1% −$152
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -29.7% -36.4% 40% 40% -35.1%
≤30d 120 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 45% -18.2%
≤90d 396 -6.1% -15.0% 47% 47% -13.2%
all 698 -7.9% -16.7% 49% 48% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 48% -18.9%
10% -24.6% 46% -26.7%
15% -31.9% 43% -33.8%
20% -38.6% 34% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$58 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$4,472
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses339 / 359
Est. fees paid−$249
Open positions2
Markets (closed)698 / 702
History coverage237d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 50¢ 60¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +75%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $74 −$68 -93%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $31 +$12 +38%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $51 +$25 +49%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $48 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $98 +$51 +52%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $338 −$334 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $231 +$107 +47%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $101 +$92 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $62 +$107 +172%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $62 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $65 −$64 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$35 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $37 +$13 +34%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $23 +$14 +59%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $29 +$15 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$14 +94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $10 +$9 +88%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $33 −$33 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $29 +$30 +103%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$17 +180%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4 +$5 +116%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $31 −$13 -42%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $38 +$14 +36%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 05 $29 +$60 +211%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs paiN Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Jun 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $32 +$33 +101%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 +$13 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 04 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $23 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $12 4m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $10 5m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $61 2h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 45¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 51¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 4¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 34¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 35¢ $54 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 39¢ $75 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 99¢ $75 4d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $48 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 66¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 63¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $149 4d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 65¢ $98 4d
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 46¢ $30 4d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 61¢ $338 4d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $338 4d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 67¢ $231 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 52¢ $101 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 39¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.17 · official $20.11 · 1414 history records