trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +149.3% | +125.5% | 73% | 73% | +90.9% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +128.5% | +106.8% | 67% | 67% | +78.3% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +73.6% | +57.1% | 53% | 53% | -2.0% |
| all | 19 | +73.6% | +57.1% | 53% | 53% | -2.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +57.1% | 53% | -2.0% |
| 10% | +42.1% | 53% | -11.4% |
| 15% | +28.3% | 53% | -20.0% |
| 20% | +15.8% | 53% | -27.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 57¢ | 90¢ | $99 | $157 | +$58 (+59%) |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | $99 | $107 | +$8 (+8%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 90¢ | $99 | $105 | +$6 (+6%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 74¢ | 76¢ | $99 | $102 | +$3 (+3%) |
| United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 | Under | 26¢ | 24¢ | $46 | $43 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 | Jun 18 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 | Jun 17 | $19 | +$68 | +365% |
| IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score | Jun 16 | $19 | +$23 | +124% |
| Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | Jun 15 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 | Jun 15 | $17 | +$51 | +307% |
| Spread: Sweden (-1.5) | Jun 15 | $17 | +$46 | +276% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score | Jun 14 | $17 | +$34 | +206% |
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 | Jun 14 | $15 | +$19 | +124% |
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 | Jun 14 | $15 | +$59 | +388% |
| United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $15 | +$23 | +152% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 | Jun 12 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score | Jun 11 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 19 | $99 | −$99 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | May 19 | $99 | −$99 | -100% |
| Will Lu Dort be named to the 2026 NBA All-Defensive First Team? | May 15 | $98 | +$168 | +171% |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 | May 14 | $94 | +$83 | +88% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | May 02 | $99 | −$99 | -100% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 29 | $99 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Apr 07 | $99 | −$99 | -100% |