Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf09…2eb6
crypto · 637 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$779 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$779 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$779
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses331 / 299
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)630 / 637
History coverage16d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day190.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 7 History 630 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$1,392
14 days−$397
30 days−$779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -17%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$8 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$770
economics 0% −$9
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 58¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -30.1% -36.8% 38% 37% -56.7%
≤30d 630 -4.7% -13.7% 53% 51% -12.4%
≤90d 630 -4.7% -13.7% 53% 51% -12.4%
all 630 -4.7% -13.7% 53% 51% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover190.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 51% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 45% -20.8%
15% -29.5% 40% -28.4%
20% -36.4% 36% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.76 · official $14.76 (match) · 3500 history records