Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf04…6e88 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$483 (-21%) realized −$532 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days−$460
14 days−$469
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$308
sports 17% −$102
crypto 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 48% -33.9%
≤30d 23 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 48% -33.4%
≤90d 23 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 48% -33.4%
all 23 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 48% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 48% -33.4%
10% -29.5% 43% -39.8%
15% -36.3% 39% -45.6%
20% -42.6% 22% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$72 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized−$532
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)23 / 33
History coverage19d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 76¢ $150 $220 +$70 (+46%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 41¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 62¢ 54¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$27 -53%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$36 -72%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$44 -88%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$7 +127%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $172 +$75 +44%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $65 −$11 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $24 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 15¢ $14 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under $6 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $51 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $102 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 12¢ $12 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $5 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.42 · official $539.42 (match) · 56 history records