Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf02…4c14 crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$677 (+15%) realized +$687 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%16W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$516
other 17% −$757
sports 8% −$99
world 4% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -15.1% -23.2% 24% 24% -23.9%
≤30d 66 -15.1% -23.2% 24% 24% -23.9%
≤90d 66 -15.1% -23.2% 24% 24% -23.9%
all 66 -15.1% -23.2% 24% 24% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 24% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 24% -31.1%
15% -37.2% 23% -37.8%
20% -43.4% 23% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$52 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$687
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses16 / 50
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage5d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 46¢ 40¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $183 −$46 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $260 +$68 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $140 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$48 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $153 −$17 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $112 −$107 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $185 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $159 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$15 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$28 +107%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $260 −$257 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $131 +$1,776 +1352%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $62 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.38 · official $311.04 · 201 history records