Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf01…5ee9 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized −$23 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$17
world 27% −$2
politics 5% −$25
culture 5% +$3
other 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.1% -25.9% 67% 17% -23.3%
≤30d 6 -18.1% -25.9% 67% 17% -23.3%
≤90d 9 -12.1% -20.4% 56% 11% -18.2%
all 9 -12.1% -20.4% 56% 11% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 11% -18.2%
10% -28.1% 0% -26.0%
15% -35.0% 0% -33.2%
20% -41.4% 0% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage82d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 47¢ 43¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $80 −$17 -22%
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Ducks vs. Oilers Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Mar 27 $50 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Jets Mar 27 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Mar 27 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.91 · official $30.91 (match) · 149 history records