Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbeff…da9f politics 148 markets active 8h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$113 (-3%) realized −$112 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$178
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$65
world 23% −$7
other 14% −$21
crypto 10% −$70
sports 8% −$56
economics 5% −$7
culture 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.2% -11.5% 14% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 124 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 2% -13.9%
≤90d 142 -5.5% -14.5% 11% 2% -14.0%
all 142 -5.5% -14.5% 11% 2% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 2% -14.0%
10% -22.7% 1% -22.2%
15% -30.2% 0% -29.8%
20% -37.0% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 126
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)142 / 148
History coverage50d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 88¢ 85¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $217 −$6 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -10%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $38 +$4 +10%
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 -3%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -3%
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 09 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 -3%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 09 $6 $0 -2%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -5%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Jun 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $70 −$2 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 −$2 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Jun 09 $21 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $68 −$5 -7%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 08 $23 −$1 -3%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 08 $11 $0 -3%
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? Jun 07 $5 $0 -2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 07 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the AL-07 House seat? Jun 06 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 06 $28 −$55 -199%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Jun 06 $42 −$55 -132%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Jun 06 $1 $0 +25%
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -8%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $5 $0 -3%
Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $10 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $10 12h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $10 17h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 32h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $10 34h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $10 38h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $10 39h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 74¢ $5 42h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 72¢ $5 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $10 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 79¢ $10 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $10 4d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $10 4d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $10 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 86¢ $10 4d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $10 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $10 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 78¢ $10 5d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 65¢ $7 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $10 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 78¢ $10 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 38¢ $6 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 59¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.92 · official $60.57 (match) · 701 history records