Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbefe…2d45 crypto 277 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,888 (-31%) realized −$27,239 · open −$649
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%231W / 30L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$7,701
crypto 27% −$1,257
other 15% −$1,690
finance 5% −$2,481
politics 3% +$419
culture 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 56% +7.6%
≤30d 40 -11.7% -20.2% 60% 35% -26.9%
≤90d 261 -4.7% -13.7% 89% 5% -22.9%
all 261 -4.7% -13.7% 89% 5% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 5% -22.9%
10% -22.0% 4% -30.2%
15% -29.5% 3% -37.0%
20% -36.4% 2% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$645 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$7,825
Realized−$27,239
Unrealized−$649
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses231 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)261 / 277
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$325
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $1,462 $1,504 +$42 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $1,200 $1,489 +$289 (+24%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 71¢ $1,020 $852 −$168 (-16%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $600 $682 +$82 (+14%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $1,003 $629 −$374 (-37%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 37¢ $1,016 $488 −$528 (-52%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 54¢ $157 $180 +$23 (+15%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 92¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,522 +$999 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$426 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,519 +$1,067 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,510 −$1,500 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $696 +$304 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $667 +$333 +50%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $2,820 +$180 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,000 +$195 +20%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 07 $255 +$58 +23%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2,308 −$2,308 -100%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-26? Jun 07 $2,928 −$2,928 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $2,001 +$304 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $300 +$154 +51%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $326 +$88 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 01 $2,030 −$2,002 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2,517 +$46 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $4,000 +$120 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $8,000 +$221 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $10 $0 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 26 $308 −$288 -93%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 26 $217 +$11 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2,005 −$250 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $1,976 −$103 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $320 −$320 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $3,369 −$3,369 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $1,468 −$1,468 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $1,989 −$1,989 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $1,410 +$60 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,357 +$1,268 +94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $980 +$261 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $886 −$25 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $958 +$12 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $822 −$822 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $2,061 +$377 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $1,312 +$69 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $103 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,522 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,519 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 27h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 28¢ $94 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $102 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $696 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $667 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 94¢ $569 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 94¢ $595 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 94¢ $32 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,000 10d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $76 10d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 46¢ $153 10d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 49¢ $2 10d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 10d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 10d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 10d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,825.45 · official $7,825.45 (match) · 3500 history records