Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BE 0xbef6…b79d other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$132 (+10%) realized +$127 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$160
crypto 7% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 100% +11.2%
≤30d 6 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 100% +11.2%
≤90d 6 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 100% +11.2%
all 6 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 100% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 100% +11.2%
10% +1.0% 33% +0.6%
15% -8.7% 17% -9.2%
20% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $269 $273 +$5 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $161 $162 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $137 +$25 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $217 +$43 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $105 +$24 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $88 +$10 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $74 +$15 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $162 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $270 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $137 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $217 24h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 71¢ $129 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $130 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $105 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $88 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $74 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.48 · official $562.48 (match) · 16 history records