trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $105 | −$2 | -2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $3 | +$2 | +59% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Jun 11 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $36 | +$1 | +3% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | Apr 27 | $114 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun | Apr 23 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 11 | $281 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 11 | $4 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $281 | $0 | +0% |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | Apr 10 | $9 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $280 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in March? | Apr 02 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Liverpool beat Tottenham? | Jan 09 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 33% | 17% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 33% | 17% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 46% | 23% | -9.2% |
| all | 18 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 56% | 17% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 17% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 6% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 6% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 6% | -33.6% |