Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbef3…9b02 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$30
politics 24% −$7
sports 7% −$15
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 5% -9.7%
all 111 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage92d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $240 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $315 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $416 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $426 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $421 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $449 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $208 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $440 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $202 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $445 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $219 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $224 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $6 2h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 5h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 22h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 24h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 27h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 42h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 44h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.99 · official $141.99 (match) · 347 history records