Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbef3…04d7 crypto 504 markets active 0h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,955 (-1%) realized −$1,954 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate75%414W / 139L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$126
14 days+$126
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1,510
crypto 34% −$513
politics 3% +$25
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -40.1% -45.8% 55% 12% -5.1%
≤30d 150 -31.1% -37.6% 63% 15% -5.1%
≤90d 176 -28.7% -35.5% 64% 18% -6.7%
all 553 -11.3% -19.7% 75% 23% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 23% -10.8%
10% -27.4% 11% -19.3%
15% -34.4% 7% -27.1%
20% -40.8% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$57 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$1,954
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses414 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)553 / 504
History coverage225d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 553 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 100¢ 98¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $59 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $58 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $55 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $55 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.26 · official $57.70 (match) · 1211 history records