Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BE
0xbef2…8a6c
politics · 37 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage263d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $42 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Sep 30 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 29 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $2 +$1 +41%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? Sep 27 $2 $0 +33%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 27 $27 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$1
politics 24% $0
other 24% $0
sports 13% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $42 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $38 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $10 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $28 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $4 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $34 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $42 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $42 9d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 97¢ $21 245d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $21 246d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 96¢ $21 246d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 96¢ $21 246d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $21 246d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $21 252d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $5 252d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $16 252d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $21 252d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 252d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.0%
all 36 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 6% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 6% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.03 · official $36.04 (match) · 107 history records