trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +75.9% | +59.2% | 55% | 9% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +69.6% | +53.4% | 50% | 8% | -9.3% |
| all | 25 | +30.0% | +17.6% | 52% | 8% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +17.6% | 8% | -10.0% |
| 10% | +6.4% | 4% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -3.9% | 4% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -13.3% | 4% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Yes | 10¢ | 1¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-87%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $14 | −$2 | -12% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 24 | $52 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 23 | $7 | +$2 | +29% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 21 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 19 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 19 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 18 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 28 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | May 24 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | May 23 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 | May 22 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 17 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | May 16 | $8 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | May 05 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 12 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? | Mar 23 | $14 | −$1 | -5% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 19 | $13 | $0 | +1% |