Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbeef…92b7 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,108 (-6%) realized −$2,808 · open −$300
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%51W / 37L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$573per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$418est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$3,055
30 days−$3,214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,659
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 83 +5.5% -4.6% 60% 45% -15.5%
≤90d 88 +2.5% -7.3% 58% 43% -15.5%
all 88 +2.5% -7.3% 58% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 43% -15.5%
10% -16.1% 32% -23.6%
15% -24.2% 28% -31.0%
20% -31.7% 20% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$368 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,808
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses51 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$418
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage31d
Avg bet$573
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 45¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $31 −$31 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,507 −$496 -33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$421 +206%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$55 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $618 +$602 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $628 −$620 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,000 +$10 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $501 +$38 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$116 +226%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $132 −$130 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $262 −$38 -15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,003 +$119 +12%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,122 −$1,100 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,465 −$1,450 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $715 +$1,589 +222%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $792 −$780 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,005 +$186 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $142 +$28 +20%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,717 +$937 +55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $314 −$310 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $306 −$300 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $303 +$114 +38%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $682 +$331 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $301 +$19 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,936 +$178 +9%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $100 +$19 +18%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $103 −$100 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $97 +$243 +250%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1,027 −$1,009 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $1,512 −$735 -49%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $51 +$149 +291%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $1 $0 +46%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $407 +$345 +85%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $333 −$330 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,774 +$175 +10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $669 −$660 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $353 +$38 +11%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3,031 +$499 +16%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $201 −$200 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $275 +$127 +46%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,758 +$319 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 45¢ $305 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 11¢ $6 7h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 9¢ $3 7h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 11¢ $3 7h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 32¢ $19 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $1,012 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 99¢ $1,000 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $303 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 40¢ $204 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $204 7d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $201 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 46¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $607 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 51¢ $507 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 45¢ $110 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 99¢ $1,000 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $501 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 30¢ $51 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $31 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 42¢ $102 10d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 30¢ $1,021 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 39¢ $111 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $151 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 14¢ $103 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 35¢ $1,020 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 89¢ $1,003 14d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 30¢ $1,021 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 20¢ $461 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 86¢ $1,004 14d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 40¢ $81 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 207 history records