Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbeee…7ba9 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$205 (+18%) realized +$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$65
other 19% +$71
sports 14% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 42% -3.8%
≤30d 26 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 42% -3.8%
≤90d 26 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 42% -3.8%
all 26 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 42% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 42% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 27% -13.0%
15% -28.3% 23% -21.4%
20% -35.3% 23% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$25 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Toronto Argonauts 36¢ 34¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $130 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $85 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$15 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$6 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $77 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$19 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$52 +197%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $124 +$160 +130%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 26 $30 −$19 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $91 +$61 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $29 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $125 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $105 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $41 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $24 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $63 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $36 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.51 · official $34.51 (match) · 83 history records