Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

BE 0xbee9…618d sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$266 (-7%) realized −$239 · open −$27

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$174per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$92est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$228

7 days−$261

14 days−$444

30 days−$358

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+20.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+25.7%	+13.8%	60%	40%	-20.1%
≤30d	21	+33.1%	+20.4%	52%	48%	-19.0%
≤90d	21	+33.1%	+20.4%	52%	48%	-19.0%
all	21	+33.1%	+20.4%	52%	48%	-19.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.4%	48%	-19.0%
10%	+8.9%	38%	-26.8%
15%	-1.7%	29%	-33.9%
20%	-11.3%	29%	-40.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +87% → late -16% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$93 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.61 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized−$239

Unrealized−$27

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Est. fees paid−$92

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage18d

Avg bet$174

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	FURIA	25¢	2¢	$29	$3	−$26 (-90%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	FURIA	9¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$1,233	+$128	+10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$472	+$93	+20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$5	+$9	+205%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	−$3	-7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$494	−$489	-99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$127	−$125	-98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-97%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$55	+$78	+143%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 08	$112	−$58	-51%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 08	$222	−$218	-98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 08	$253	+$80	+32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 07	$190	+$64	+34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 07	$2	+$2	+120%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 07	$20	+$31	+151%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 06	$129	+$28	+22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 06	$15	−$12	-77%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 06	$25	+$17	+68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 06	$96	+$36	+38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 06	$85	−$3	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 03	$14	−$14	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	13¢	$2	44m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	19¢	$2	45m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	24¢	$5	47m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	28¢	$20	48m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL FURIA	14¢	$6	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	9¢	$5	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	90¢	$409	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	81¢	$371	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	14¢	$5	20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Team Falcons	58¢	$179	20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	47¢	$152	20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	59¢	$343	21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	53¢	$271	21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	44¢	$270	21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	43¢	$313	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Spirit	60¢	$313	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Spirit	50¢	$268	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	46¢	$251	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	36¢	$204	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	38¢	$0	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Spirit	32¢	$14	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	10¢	$5	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	66¢	$211	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	56¢	$184	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	55¢	$183	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	49¢	$168	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Team Falcons	52¢	$169	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	42¢	$141	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL No	34¢	$38	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	35¢	$41	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.96 · official $6.51 · 63 history records