Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbee9…acfa crypto 60 markets active 15h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-6%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 44% -13.0%
≤30d 60 -19.9% -27.6% 47% 33% -19.4%
≤90d 60 -19.9% -27.6% 47% 33% -19.4%
all 60 -19.9% -27.6% 47% 33% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 33% -19.4%
10% -34.5% 23% -27.1%
15% -40.8% 20% -34.1%
20% -46.6% 17% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$3 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records