Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbee6…67d2 sports 964 markets active 2d ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%443W / 519L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$72
14 days−$73
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$132
crypto 6% −$83
other 3% −$60
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -63.0% -66.5% 17% 17% -65.3%
≤30d 60 -30.4% -37.1% 28% 28% -29.9%
≤90d 524 -63.1% -66.6% 17% 16% -61.6%
all 962 -0.0% -9.6% 46% 45% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 45% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 44% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 44% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 43% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses443 / 519
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)962 / 964
History coverage232d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 962 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$3 -59%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$4 -73%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$9 +172%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$14 +93%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 38¢ $5 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $5 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $5 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $5 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 6d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.64 · official $6.64 (match) · 2032 history records