Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BE 0xbee5…b715 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$96 (+20%) realized +$73 · open +$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip

Net edge+42%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$97per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+41.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+56.5%	+41.6%	100%	100%	+40.9%
≤30d	3	+56.5%	+41.6%	100%	100%	+40.9%
≤90d	3	+56.5%	+41.6%	100%	100%	+40.9%
all	3	+56.5%	+41.6%	100%	100%	+40.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+41.6%	100%	+40.9%
10%	+28.1%	100%	+27.4%
15%	+15.7%	100%	+15.1%
20%	+4.4%	67%	+3.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +57% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$223

Realized+$73

Unrealized+$23

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage13d

Avg bet$97

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$100	$124	+$24 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$51	+$34	+67%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$134	+$86	+64%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$97	+$37	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	60¢	$134	2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	95¢	$134	3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	68¢	$97	12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.26 · official $223.26 (match) · 21 history records