trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 17% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +12.9% | +2.1% | 47% | 18% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +12.9% | +2.1% | 47% | 18% | -9.2% |
| all | 27 | +12.9% | +2.2% | 56% | 19% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +2.2% | 19% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -7.6% | 11% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -16.5% | 11% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -24.7% | 11% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | $30 | $31 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | $3 | $4 | +$0 (+13%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Jun 21 | $50 | $0 | -1% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 20 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $9 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $23 | $0 | -2% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $48 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 04 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 04 | $55 | +$2 | +3% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $48 | +$1 | +1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 31 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $92 | +$1 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 30 | $50 | −$2 | -4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $6 | +$1 | +14% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 29 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 28 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +15% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Jun 26 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 21 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4? | Mar 06 | $4 | +$4 | +117% |
| Flames vs. Flyers | Mar 06 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Xavier vs. Butler | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Stanford vs. Notre Dame | Mar 04 | $18 | $0 | -2% |
| Rutgers vs. Washington | Mar 04 | $8 | +$8 | +108% |