Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbee2…41e6 sports 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-10%) realized −$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%34W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$12
other 25% −$7
world 3% $0
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 46% -22.5%
≤30d 68 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 46% -22.5%
≤90d 68 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 46% -22.5%
all 68 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 46% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 46% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 35% -29.9%
15% -36.7% 26% -36.7%
20% -42.9% 16% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses34 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)68 / 88
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? No 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? No 60¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 55¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 61¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $1 +$1 +99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Elitzur Netanya Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $1 29m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $1 30m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $1 47m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $1 47m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $1 47m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $1 56m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $1 56m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 56m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1 56m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $1 57m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $1 57m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 58m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $1 14h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $1 14h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $1 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $1 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 15h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $0 16h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag SELL Ursa 100¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.02 · official $19.02 (match) · 156 history records