Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
BE 0xbedd…68b7 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$542 (-20%) realized −$552 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$75
other 36% −$398
world 4% −$69
finance 4% −$2
sports 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-75.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -55.6% -59.8% 33% 33% -82.8%
≤30d 4 -66.7% -69.8% 25% 25% -83.0%
≤90d 4 -66.7% -69.8% 25% 25% -83.0%
all 5 -73.3% -75.9% 20% 20% -97.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.9% 20% -97.9%
10% -78.2% 20% -98.1%
15% -80.3% 0% -98.3%
20% -82.2% 0% -98.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$141 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$2,106
Realized−$552
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)5 / 18
History coverage232d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $633 $570 −$63 (-10%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 55¢ 52¢ $433 $412 −$21 (-5%)
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 78¢ $260 $388 +$128 (+49%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $333 $341 +$8 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 72¢ 66¢ $72 $66 −$6 (-8%)
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $502 −$502 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 28¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $50 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 5d
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 5d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? BUY $1,000 55¢ $103 5d
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $105 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $50 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $315 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $350 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $340 14d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? BUY $1,000 55¢ $343 14d
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 14d
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $255 27d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 72¢ $73 28d
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 28d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 12¢ $302 231d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 12¢ $200 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,106.37 · official $2,106.37 (match) · 39 history records