Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbedd…8aa1 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,038 (-9%) realized −$2,038 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$572per market
Trades / day109.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 45% -26.9%
≤30d 38 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 45% -26.9%
≤90d 38 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 45% -26.9%
all 38 +1.6% -8.0% 45% 45% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 45% -26.9%
10% -16.8% 45% -33.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 45% -40.3%
20% -32.2% 45% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$981) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$564 vs −$655 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,038
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$572
Trades / day109.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $1,865 −$1,865 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $998 +$883 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $995 −$995 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $1,047 −$1,047 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $1,049 −$1,049 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $935 −$935 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $630 −$630 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $981 −$981 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $1,281 −$1,281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $504 −$504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $986 +$1,089 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $1,002 +$1,595 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $519 +$404 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $1,124 +$1,428 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $494 +$631 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $469 +$629 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $315 +$826 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $66 +$138 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$136 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $467 +$522 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $376 −$376 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $783 −$783 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $495 +$660 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $887 −$850 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $776 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $572 −$572 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $321 +$275 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $433 −$387 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $384 −$370 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $222 +$180 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$29 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $109 +$108 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $87 +$49 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $413 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $502 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $536 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,881 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $627 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $58 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $530 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $464 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $297 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $331 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $282 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $347 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $128 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records