Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbed7…a0fa weather 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,575 (-15%) realized −$1,609 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate49%141W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day113.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$674
7 days−$1,879
14 days−$1,878
30 days−$1,878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$1,003
other 13% −$285
sports 1% −$100
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 -23.8% -31.0% 49% 16% -26.1%
≤30d 286 -23.3% -30.6% 49% 16% -26.1%
≤90d 286 -23.3% -30.6% 49% 16% -26.1%
all 286 -23.3% -30.6% 49% 16% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 16% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 15% -33.2%
15% -43.3% 14% -39.6%
20% -48.9% 13% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$25 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized−$1,609
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses141 / 145
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)286 / 261
History coverage8d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day113.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 46¢ $48 $244 +$196 (+412%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 38¢ $21 $30 +$9 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $9 $27 +$18 (+202%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 24¢ 15¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $48 $1 −$46 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $48 $1 −$46 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $48 $1 −$47 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C or higher on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $48 $1 −$47 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 11? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C or higher on June 11? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 11? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on June 11? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 11? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 11? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C or below on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or below on June 11? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 11? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 14? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$26 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $73 +$18 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$30 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$31 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$33 +131%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 −$20 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 5m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 7m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 7m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 26¢ $27 8m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 14m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 15m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 29m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 33m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 35m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 36m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.33 · official $429.33 (match) · 901 history records