Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbed5…dbbf other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 19% $0
politics 9% +$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% +$4
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 40 +1.4% -8.3% 40% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.1% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage486d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $45 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $84 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 21 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-03-06? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Chicago State vs. Long Island University Mar 05 $13 $0 -4%
Roma vs. FC Porto Mar 04 $9 +$4 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $45 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $9 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $31 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $26 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $45 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $45 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $45 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $20 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $11 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $44 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.19 · official $40.19 (match) · 115 history records