Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BE 0xbed3…2811 sports 318 markets active 2d ago coverage 70d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,967 (+0%) realized +$3,967 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate68%217W / 101L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,391per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$7,223est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$15,055
other 14% +$12,316
crypto 2% −$692
world 0% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.0% -42.1% 0% 0% -22.0%
≤30d 66 -6.3% -15.3% 71% 41% -19.1%
≤90d 318 -5.6% -14.6% 68% 54% -9.5%
all 318 -5.6% -14.6% 68% 54% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 54% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 25% -18.2%
15% -30.2% 11% -26.1%
20% -37.1% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$3,372) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$918 vs −$2,006 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,967
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses217 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$7,223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 318
History coverage70d
Avg bet$3,391
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,234 −$1,225 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,242 −$7 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13,984 −$1,045 -8%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,204 −$1,200 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $1,364 +$160 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3,157 −$422 -13%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,000 −$73 -7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $1,483 +$151 +10%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $2,010 −$762 -38%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $871 +$138 +16%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $303 −$300 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $711 +$129 +18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $260 +$74 +28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $974 −$3 -0%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $1,989 −$1,977 -99%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1,295 −$1,286 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $1,162 +$135 +12%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $987 +$175 +18%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $746 +$240 +32%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $739 +$7 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $653 +$86 +13%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $549 +$104 +19%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $501 +$48 +10%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $462 +$38 +8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $394 +$68 +17%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $236 −$233 -99%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 May 31 $819 −$583 -71%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 May 31 $642 +$177 +28%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $605 +$37 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $469 +$136 +29%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $423 +$45 +11%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 May 30 $2,163 −$1,740 -80%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 May 30 $2,000 +$164 +8%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $3,639 +$349 +10%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 May 30 $1,806 +$221 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 30 $2,468 +$131 +5%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 May 30 $2,243 +$225 +10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 1.5 May 29 $1,999 +$244 +12%
Andorra vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 May 29 $2,503 +$315 +13%
IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 5.5 May 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $1,384 +$150 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $2,197 +$148 +7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 29 $2,049 +$148 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $1,996 +$49 +2%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 May 28 $2,243 +$187 +8%
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? May 28 $2,345 −$61 -3%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 May 28 $2,348 −$44 -2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $2,214 +$132 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 28 $1,666 +$180 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,234 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $1,235 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,242 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12,939 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $67 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10,002 9d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $401 9d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $402 9d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $401 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,525 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1,364 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,092 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,788 11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,008 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 88¢ $898 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 90¢ $927 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $927 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $993 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 65¢ $32 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 64¢ $101 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 62¢ $740 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 76¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 76¢ $1,100 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 73¢ $965 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 81¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 83¢ $1,128 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1233 history records