Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbecf…52d1 crypto 319 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+4%) realized +$45 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%143W / 175L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day62.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$20
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 +7.0% -3.2% 45% 44% -7.7%
≤30d 318 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 44% -7.6%
≤90d 318 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 44% -7.6%
all 318 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 44% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 44% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 42% -16.4%
15% -20.7% 41% -24.5%
20% -28.5% 31% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses143 / 175
Open positions1
Markets (closed)318 / 319
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day62.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $2.17 · 714 history records