Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbece…e96b other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$7
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1
sports 20% −$2
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -17.2% -25.1% 36% 30% -13.9%
≤30d 73 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 38% -10.5%
≤90d 73 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 38% -10.5%
all 73 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 38% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 38% -10.5%
10% -18.8% 33% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 32% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $180 +$1 +1%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +365%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -9%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 $0 -6%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 -16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $6 +$1 +14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +365%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +170%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -34%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$1 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $41 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $41 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.87 · official $3.87 (match) · 166 history records