Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbecd…7fd6 crypto 1117 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,164 (-45%) realized −$11,164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%504W / 611L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$1,303
sports 38% +$756
other 6% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.3% +27.0% 100% 100% +14.7%
≤30d 13 +13.1% +2.4% 92% 69% +5.2%
≤90d 861 -22.7% -30.0% 42% 35% -7.7%
all 1115 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 37% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 37% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 30% -21.1%
15% -41.1% 24% -28.7%
20% -46.9% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$11,164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses504 / 611
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1115 / 1117
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 87¢ 86¢ $144 $143 −$1 (-1%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) T1 68¢ 69¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $24 +$16 +67%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $71 +$9 +13%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $343 +$90 +26%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $20 +$7 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $206 +$60 +29%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $198 +$8 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $583 +$121 +21%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $537 +$45 +8%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $475 +$62 +13%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $401 +$38 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $30 +$6 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $395 +$33 +8%
Game Handicap: DNS.C (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) May 29 $1 +$1 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $327 +$39 +12%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 26 $61 +$3 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $267 +$73 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $202 +$65 +32%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 24 $15 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $19 +$36 +185%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $20 +$3 +13%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 24 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $31 +$40 +132%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $10 +$5 +54%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $133 +$19 +14%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 23 $20 +$8 +40%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $127 +$27 +21%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $314 −$111 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $204 +$49 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 22 $3 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $11 +$11 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 21 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 21 $14 +$14 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 68¢ $26 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $145 11h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 59¢ $24 3d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 88¢ $25 4d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 88¢ $22 4d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 88¢ $24 6d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 79¢ $343 17d
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY RED Canids 75¢ $20 20d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $101 21d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 77¢ $206 27d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 96¢ $198 27d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 84¢ $50 28d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 84¢ $502 28d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 62¢ $30 28d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $582 28d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 92¢ $537 29d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 100¢ $537 29d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 88¢ $475 29d
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $439 29d
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $36 29d
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 82¢ $30 29d
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 91¢ $401 29d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 70¢ $2 30d
Game Handicap: DNS.C (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) SELL DN SOOPers Challengers 100¢ $2 30d
Game Handicap: DNS.C (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) BUY DN SOOPers Challengers 69¢ $1 30d
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 92¢ $395 31d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $29 31d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 100¢ $366 31d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 89¢ $327 31d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.46 · official $169.46 (match) · 3500 history records