Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BE 0xbecb…12e4 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$6
sports 34% +$1
world 11% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-65.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -61.7% -65.3% 17% 17% -21.2%
≤90d 6 -61.7% -65.3% 17% 17% -21.2%
all 6 -61.7% -65.3% 17% 17% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.3% 17% -21.2%
10% -68.6% 17% -28.7%
15% -71.7% 17% -35.6%
20% -74.4% 0% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage14d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$4 -18%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 9d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 8¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.32 · official $120.33 (match) · 11 history records