Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbeca…a1b7 sports 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+1%) realized +$165 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%49W / 41L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$770
14 days+$822
30 days+$948
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$369
sports 18% +$513
crypto 1% −$34
politics 1% −$7
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +45.6% +31.8% 100% 83% -1.4%
≤30d 27 +3.5% -6.4% 63% 56% +0.0%
≤90d 67 -16.1% -24.1% 46% 43% -4.3%
all 90 -9.3% -17.9% 54% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 49% -8.9%
10% -25.8% 42% -17.6%
15% -32.9% 32% -25.6%
20% -39.5% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$53 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$165
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses49 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)90 / 107
History coverage334d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $120 $75 −$45 (-38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+35%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $44 $51 +$7 (+16%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 28 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $8,469 +$732 +9%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$6 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$38 +93%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 +$4 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$1 -9%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $17 +$18 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $10 −$9 -87%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $15 +$16 +103%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $15 +$13 +82%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $101 +$42 +42%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $82 +$107 +130%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner May 28 $10 +$10 +101%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 3 Winner May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner May 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 26 $5 +$6 +123%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner May 26 $5 +$13 +262%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 26 $10 +$8 +79%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $25 +$9 +34%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner May 24 $20 +$15 +73%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner May 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 24 $10 +$12 +118%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $10 −$6 -57%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $10 +$8 +82%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner May 23 $10 +$18 +172%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 23 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $20 −$12 -59%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both BUY 8¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 3¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 38¢ $51 7d
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 10d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 11d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $21 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 70¢ $15 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $78 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 64¢ $30 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $10 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 25¢ $10 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $24 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 58¢ $20 14d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 18¢ $10 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $15 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 58¢ $10 14d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $5 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 15d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 19d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 1¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.18 · official $506.02 (match) · 217 history records