Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

BE 0xbec5…4c01 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$801 (+12%) realized +$801 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate56%15W / 12L

Drawdown47%max

Avg bet$223per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit19%portable

Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$23

7 days+$33

14 days−$334

30 days+$730

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-28.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-23.0%	-30.3%	58%	42%	-7.0%
≤30d	27	-21.0%	-28.5%	56%	44%	+0.7%
≤90d	27	-21.0%	-28.5%	56%	44%	+0.7%
all	27	-21.0%	-28.5%	56%	44%	+0.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.5%	44%	+0.7%
10%	-35.4%	30%	-9.0%
15%	-41.6%	26%	-17.8%
20%	-47.3%	15%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late -37% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$90 vs −$52 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage

Net worth$228

Realized+$801

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses15 / 12

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)27 / 31

History coverage35d

Avg bet$223

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown47%

Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	82¢	82¢	$150	$150	+$0 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$28	$27	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$190	+$18	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$107	+$11	+11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$4	-36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$6	+6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Corners	Jun 21	$10	+$2	+16%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Corners	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	+$22	+43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$30	−$24	-80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$5	+53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$7	−$7	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$268	+$30	+11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$142	+$108	+76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$151	−$150	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$40	+$16	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$8	+8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 16	$5	−$1	-10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$19	+18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$20	+$20	+96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 13	$401	−$400	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$14	+$6	+42%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?	Jun 03	$13	−$13	-98%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Jun 03	$4,720	+$1,077	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	72¢	$85	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	71¢	$81	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$40	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$101	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$79	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	67¢	$80	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$6	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$10	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$71	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$50	37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	87¢	$6	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	89¢	$50	46h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Corners	BUY Over	60¢	$5	47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners	BUY Over	59¢	$5	47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Corners	BUY Over	86¢	$10	47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$72	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	64¢	$6	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	81¢	$10	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$20	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$47	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$41	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	82¢	$30	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$7	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.79 · official $311.72 · 77 history records